Oddsmakers are calling for a close game in Pittsburgh in Week 17, but our NFL betting picks think it’ll take a Christmas miracle for the Steelers to stop Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
Christmas Day Showdown: Chiefs vs Steelers
The NFL stuffs our stockings with a Christmas Day clash between the Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers іn Week 17.
After playing with fire іn close games for most оf the season, Kansas City іs starting tо look like the defending Super Bowl champion іn their past two outings. The Steelers, оn the other hand, have lost two іn a row and are coming back tо earth after a 10-3 start tо the schedule.
Predictions and Picks
Here are my best Chiefs vs. Steelers predictions and NFL picks for Wednesday, December 25.
My Best Bet
Chiefs moneyline (-149 at BetMGM)
Analysis: Can the Steelers Stop Mahomes?
The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming back to earth faster than Santa Claus two minutes before dawn.
Pittsburgh’s surprise 10-3 start to the season has been tested by a daunting final stretch, leaving it to drag a two-game losing skid into Wednesday’s home date with the Kansas City Chiefs.
Everything is coming off the rails this month. A once-vaunted defense has been bullied in loss to Philadelphia and Baltimore, giving up 54 points on more than 800 total yards allowed.
Defensive Struggles for Pittsburgh
What’s worse is that the Eagles and Ravens dragged the Steelers defense for a collective 72 minutes of on-field ass-waxing. Not only is that a ton of time logged by the Pittsburgh stop unit, but it came against the two most physical offenses in the NFL.
That leaves the Steelers tenderized on another tight turnaround and now facing a methodical Chiefs offense, one that slowly moves the chains with one of the most efficient attacks in the NFL. Kansas City is second in time of possession and runs the slowest tempo in the land.
Key Injuries for the Steelers
Compounding that crunch is a long list of ailments on the Pittsburgh defense. Following Saturday’s loss to the Ravens, top corner Joey Porter Jr. is questionable with a knee injury, which leaves the secondary potentially thin as CB Donte Jackson and safety DeShon Elliott missed Week 16. Starting DT Larry Ogunjobi also missed Saturday with a groin injury.
Offensive Concerns for Pittsburgh
As for the Steelers’ offense, that group is also hitting a snag.
Stud receiver George Pickens is questionable for Week 17 after missing the past three games with a groin injury, dragging down the production of quarterback Russell Wilson. The veteran QB was undergoing a resurgence in the Steel City, but he’s thrown for 6.2 yards per attempt over the last three outings — losing any deep-play threats.
Wilson faces an aggressive pass rush from K.C. defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, whose blitz-heavy schemes have generated the seventh-highest pressure rate in football. Wilson got a taste of Spags’ stop unit during his tenure in Denver, suffering 10 total sacks in his last three meetings with the Chiefs. An injury to Chiefs’ standout DL Chris Jones is one to watch for Wednesday.
Chiefs’ Defense vs Steelers’ Offense
Wilson not only sees his passing ratings at PFF take a tumble under duress, but he’s throwing into a Chiefs secondary that plays a high rate of man-to-man coverage. Wilson’s production also takes a dip versus man concepts, ranking 25th in completion rate and 22nd in accuracy against man-to-man.
Final Thoughts: Can Steelers Pull Off a Miracle?
Much like the bookies setting this spread below a field goal, I want to give the Steelers some respect at home. But I’m not convinced they can defeat the Chiefs given the trajectory of these two teams and matchup on Xmas Day. I’ll take Kansas City on the moneyline.
