| Matchup — 11/28 | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
| CHI4-7 | +9.5-108 | o47.5-110 | +375 |
| DET10-1 | -9.5-114 | u47.5-110 | -500 |
The Chicago Bears (4-7) and Detroit Lions (10-1) will face off оn NFL Thanksgiving at 12:30 p.m. ET from Ford Field іn Detroit, Mich. The game will be broadcast live оn CBS and can be streamed оn Paramount+ оr YouTube TV.
The Lions are favored by 9.5 points over the Bears (Lions -9.5) with the game total set at 47.5 points scored. The Lions are -525 favorites to win outright, while the Bears are +390 to pull off the upset.
The Bears lost 30-27 last week tо the Vikings іn overtime and have lost 7 straight. Caleb Williams showed some life, though, with 340 passing yards and 2 touchdown passes. The Lions won 24-6 over the Colts last week and have won 9 straight games. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery combined for 3 touchdowns while the Detroit defense thrived.
Bears Vs. Lions Prediction
Spread
I’m betting the Lions against the spread. I would bet Detroit all the way to -12.5 since I see a massive edge for the Lions in this one.
Even with some money coming in on Chicago, the Lions remain a heavy public side, with 74% of the spread bets on Detroit. Public non-Dallas favorites on Thanksgiving are 23-5 ATS since 2007 (82%), including a perfect 7-0 ATS when the spread percentage hits that magic number of 74%.
Everyone and their estranged uncle will have a bet on the Lions on Thanksgiving. History says you should too. Take Lions -9.5 to the bank.
Moneyline
While I like the Lions against the spread, I see no value on the moneyline at -500. Lay the points with Detroit against a Bears team that has lost five straight games.
Over/Under
I’m also passing on the total for this game.
My Pick: Lions -9.5 (Play to -12.5)
| Bears @ Lions Picks |
|
Markus Markets Last 30d: 32-24-0 (+25.0u) R.Odunze o3.5 Recs -120 (1u) R.Odunze o3.5 -120 (1u) |
|
Jake Last 30d: 33-19-0 (+13.0u) D.Montgomery o74.5 Rush + Rec Yds +100 (1u) |
Bears Vs. Lions Odds, Spread, Over/Under
|
Thursday, Nov 28 12:30 p.m. ET CBS | ||
| Bears Odds | ||
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
| +9.5 -105 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +390 |
| Lions Odds | ||
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
| -9.5 -115 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -525 |
- Bears vs. Lions spread: Lions -9.5
- Bears vs. Lions over/under: 47.5 points scored
- Bears vs. Lions moneyline: Lions -525, Bears +390
- Bears vs. Lions best bet: Lions -9.5
Chicago Bears Vs. Detroit Lions Preview
You don’t need an expert to tell you the Lions are the better team.
It might be worth a reminder just how much better the Lions are, though.
The Bears rank dead last in Offensive DVOA on the road, coming to a tough holiday environment to face a Lions pass defense that ranks tops in the league. Caleb Williams played perhaps the best ball of his professional career against Minnesota last week but that was at home against a quietly fading pass defense. Can he do it in this spotlight?
Chicago’s run defense has also faltered badly, now third worst in the NFL. That’s a huge problem against a Lions team built to dominate in the trenches and win with the run. Detroit has the best offensive line in the league and a powerful one-two punch in David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, built to control the clock and chew up defensive fronts.
The Lions are the second-best team against the spread in the first half at 9-2 while the Bears are third-worst, setting up the usual script for the Lions to get out to an early lead and roll.
One place we haven’t seen that? On Thanksgiving itself.
The Lions have lost seven in a row on Turkey Day, which means both Dan Campbell and Jared Goff have yet to win on Thanksgiving. You better believe Detroit knows that and will come into this game focused and ready to win, for the first time ever, as Super Bowl favorites.
Goff and the Lions continue to be nearly unbeatable indoors, now 32-10 ATS (76%) in the regular season, covering 13-of-15 games since an upset loss last Thanksgiving. It’s a bad schedule spot for Chicago, with teams on a short week after a division game within three points covering just 43% of the time the past two decades, while the Bears are also tired off an overtime game.
Mostly though, this is just a Thanksgiving trends smash spot.
Even on this losing streak, the Lions have covered eight of their last 12 Thanksgiving games, a stretch that includes 4-1 ATS as favorites.
Besides, it’s profitable betting favorites in general on Thanksgiving — as long as it’s not the Cowboys. Non-Dallas Thanksgiving favorites are 30-10 ATS on Turkey Day since 2007, covering 75% of the time by almost a full touchdown.
This is a huge holiday game teams have waited for all season, so there’s no look-ahead or letdown for the favorites. The good teams roll.
Great teams roll, too. Thanksgiving favorites of seven or more points are 19-7 ATS during that stretch, covering 73% of the time by almost a full touchdown themselves.
My Pick: Lions -9.5 (Play to -12.5)
Lions Vs Bears Betting Trends
- 75% of bets and 70% of the money are on the Lions to cover the spread;
- 95% of bets and 88% of the money on the moneyline are on the Lions to win outright;
- 78% of bets and 78% of the money are on the over.
